A balance has to be struck but it is worth remembering the phrase ‘you don’t make peace with your friends’. In other words, peace does require engagement with opponents.
Prof Roger Mac Ginty
Introduction
As promised in the first article of this series, we now turn to a global comparative study of modern coalition conflicts and politics, to be able to both place our discussion in a wider frame, as to be able to assess and learn from such global lessons. We have sufficiently defined the working concepts inherent in the concepts that we are using in the first article, and here again we will try to not get too involved in local nuances and differences in legal and political differences, but seek to extract applicable lessons and benefits from such practices.
An illustrative selection of modern global coalition developments, practices and experiences
1. Peacekeeping experiences
While our focus here is on city and state coalitions in political conflict, there is some practical benefit to briefly widen our comparative study to look at experiences and available lessons to be learned from more international conflicts, and where peacekeeping provides us with several fruitful studies. These conflict coalitions are, by the nature of such conflicts and the decline of several international structures, rather ad hoc and area specific. Examples such as the Kenyan-led Multinational Security Support mission in Haiti, the Multinational Joint Task Force combating the Boko Haram insurgency in the Lake Chad region, or the US-led Coalition Task Force Sentinel in the Gulf region provide us with helpful background studies, and some applicable principles.
Instructive parallels can be found, I argue, for urban conflict coalitions, in the reduction of influence of structures of influence and power (such as the UN), an increased focus on cost saving and efficiency in the application of such coalitions, an increased focus on specific tasks that are included in such coalitions without regarding such collaborations as permanent and a few other comparisons. Arguably the best transferable lesson here is the modern understanding of these coalitions as vehicles of transformation, not just containment or spoiler strategies. I argue that even military ad hoc coalitions (AHC) in recent times provide us with valuable material for honing our urban conflict political skills.
The so-called ADHOCISM dataset, working with 58 military AHCs since 1945, provides us with field-tested data that can bring insight to regional political conflicts as experienced in our cities and provinces, including the use and coordination of assets, goals of such coalitions and their effective monitoring, and the limitations in practice of diverse coalitions. Where these examples and case studies play a particularly helpful role, in my view, is in their contributions to the so-called collective conflict management (CCM), a concept that to my mind has much in common with collective bargaining as we find that in employment and commercial disputes, simply on a higher level and updated for modern urban conflict.
2. The rise of subnational political conflict
South African coalition politics step into the maelstrom of the country’s unresolved conflicts, with all of its secondary conflicts and risks, a backdrop which does not bode well for the general South African politician’s complete unpreparedness and lack of conflict leadership competencies as far as coalition conflicts are concerned. Global trends show a marked increase in subnational or regional political conflict, both in content and frequency. Parties at regional and national level focus on cities as important battlegrounds that shape and steer their national campaigns, and political conflict at this localised level is an intense test of modern political conflict skills, especially when coalition politics come into play. The three main factors that have played a role in intensifying these conflicts on a local level, viz. decentralization, democratization and liberalization, all continuing conflict causes in the South African and global environments, and all concerns that must be dealt with even before the specialized challenges of coalition politics can be tackled.
3. Types of coalitions
The South African coalition landscape is, in many important respects, still in its infancy, especially as measured against the high level conflict skill this has become in modern political conflict. In popular discourse the most prevalent meaning is the conventional horizontal coalition, involving two or more political parties working towards certain general or specified goals, but it is also of some potential benefit to briefly here mention a few other coalition possibilities that may be used fruitfully, such as vertical coalitions, or coalitions involving corporate and other non-state actors. These types are all seen in action from time to time, and they generally can be approached with the same strategies and skills as the more conventional version require.
This can be an important facet of this conflict competency when the interests or execution of policies of the local municipality or government differs in material respects from the national government’s policy or delivery expectations, such as we see in ongoing tensions between Cape Town and the South African national government. Helpful examples of this form of paradiplomacy can be found in comparative studies involving California (US), Sao Paolo (Brazil) and Kaliningrad (north-western Russia).
4. External reasons adding to the urgency of effective coalition conflict skills
In South Africa, as elsewhere, coalition politics is often reduced to a mathematical equation, a matching of votes and election strengths to enable a formation of political parties to work together, defeat opponents and / or to implement certain policies. This in itself is justified and will be a sufficient understanding more often than not. But changes in global conflict causes should also prompt and sustain a wider lens approach to coalitions, where coalitions have the efficient combating of external challenges in mind, where pressing and often overwhelming economic and social challenges are met through the efficient application of coalition conflict politics, even where a party may have a nominal sufficient majority to rule a city or district.
This extends the energies of those parties beyond just an ad hoc collaboration, and systematizes and focuses available resources and skills on joint benefit for that region beyond partisan considerations. This is a particularly helpful tool, potentially, in the so-called FCV (fragile, conflict and violence) settings, of which South Africa of course has quite a few. Up to two thirds of the world’s extreme poor could live in such FCV zones by 2030. Mali and Yemen have instructive modern examples of this concept.
5. Inter-party conflict management in coalition politics
Given the increased importance of coalition conflict skills, much of global research and case studies are working on two main fronts, a level where conflict between opposing or participating parties are studied and applied, and a less prevalent category where these skills are developed for the training of one party in an environment where co-operation or joint standards and values may not be a given. This distinction does not seem to be a formal one, but a study of a large number of research papers and other practical work, including personal consulting work, during the last five years, certainly support such a division.
It is here, in this second category, that I believe South African politicians can make great progress. It may admittedly be too much to ask for that more than one party collaborate on upgrading the coalition conflict skills of their political seniors, but on this second category’s philosophy that would not be necessary. We will return to this fascinating question in the fourth article in this series, but here, in our global assessment, we can already see the vast potential and benefits of even just one political party, and even just at its top structures, dedicating time and other resources to elite level coaching and strategizing in the world of coalition conflicts.
While more than one party being well-versed in such conflicts would greatly benefit the constituents of that region, there is no doubt that even one party applying the unilateral principles and strategies of coalition conflicts will already make a meaningful difference in the political results of that region. This one party would be measurably better at persuasion, the sustainable resolution of conflicts, the avoidance of unwarranted compromise solutions, uncovering conflict causes and efficiently addressing conflict symptoms, the efficient negotiation of conflict resolutions, and a range of other coalition conflict outcomes available to even that single participating, skilled party.
6. Foundations for effective coalition politics
Globally we see patterns of relative success in coalition conflicts in countries where political parties have been fragmented for long periods, where histories of multi-party governance are found, or where proportional representation voting systems are in place. These political realities, by design or by necessity over time, seem to encourage the skilled conflict negotiation so necessary in coalition politics. While the thirty-plus years that South Africa has been grappling with democratic values and dynamics may not count for much in the line of experience, the recent drastic decline of the once-dominant African National Congress, and the concomitant rise of splinter parties and personality politics, have certainly created a political environment where top level, effective coalition conflict skills will become an essential part of any serious political contender’s arsenal.
7. A few global examples of effective coalition politics
In Berlin a coalition of essentially three parties have rather successfully governed a population of nearly four million people for nearly a decade. Advanced conflict negotiation skills and a dedicated focus on the recognition of these leadership competencies make this a wonderfully enriching field of study for those who are serious about this skillset. Amsterdam in the Netherlands is a beneficiary of the Dutch “polder” model of consensus building, a nuanced and highly skilled form of conflict negotiation, built and perfected over decades. These examples are indeed transferable to the South African political environment, including the challenges and possibilities around the so-called kingmaker components of coalition politics.
In Africa, coalition politics have been shown to be the most effective post-colonial form of governance when understood and applied correctly and consistently. Malawi’s Tonse Alliance and Kenya’s National Accord are illustrative examples of national coalitions that worked meaningfully, and Port Louis in Mauritius provide lessons in city level coalition politics that are applied effectively.
In Asia, India’s National Democratic Alliance, in Malaysia the Pakatan Harapan and in the Philippines the Koalisyon ng Daang Matuwid provide helpful studies in coalition conflict management at national / vertical level, and the Delhi Municipal Coalitions, and the Jakarta Gubernatorial Coalitions providing similar case studies on city level coalitions.
Conclusion
Global studies of modern coalition conflict politics show the growing prevalence and importance of this specialized field of conflict management, it highlights the liberating potential of this conflict tool if studied in depth and applied at consistently high levels of skill, but it also emphasizes the dangers in using this conflict tool without that high level of knowledge and practical application.
Coalition conflict politics is a scalpel, not a hammer, and it is a conflict skill that can do as much harm as it can do good. The applicable global examples offer a rich and exciting field of study and comparison to South African politicians willing to learn and do the necessary work. While the South African political landscape requires its own particularly crafted conflict tools, such as specific conflict negotiation taxonomies and nuances, the potential of coalition politics properly utilized should be grasped as a matter of urgency.
Summary of main sources, references and suggested reading 1. Relevant articles for your general negotiation and conflict work, and their source material, can be found at www.conflict-conversations.co.za
2. For an expanded argument on how our political leadership should heal the country by healing the conflict in our cities, including a discussion on modern political coalitions, see Skylines: the modern urban conflict manual, by Andre Vlok (Paradigm Media, 2025), available via Amazon or the publishers.
(Andre Vlok can be contacted at andre@conflict1.co.za for any further information.)
(c) Andre Vlok
October 2025