In the age of artificial intelligence, second place will be of an ever-diminishing and distant value.
Michael Kanaan
Few people doubt that machines will one day surpass most distinctively human capabilities; the disagreements are about the rate of travel, not the direction.
Martin Rees
We ourselves create the reality of human experience with the questions we ask and the procedures that we undertake to find the answers to them.
Paul Levy
Introduction and focus of the essay
Elite negotiation, both in its political and commercial forms, stagnated to some extent in recent years. This crucial skill became somewhat becalmed, without much innovation or new horizons produced. New developments, new challenges, the complete disruption of previously safe paradigms and axioms have however pushed this discipline out of that comfort zone, into an era of new exploration and development. Some of the most important of these developments will occur from a fusion of certain aspects of a multidisciplinary array of disciplines with elite negotiation, such as conflict management, complexity theory and a range of others that I will be assessing in an upcoming article and book.
One of those fresh winds of enormous change, however, is the influence of artificial intelligence on elite negotiation, and it is here that I want to spend some time in having a focused look at developments and opportunities that arise from these changes for us who work in this field. These are significant changes, both inviting us to adopt some of them in order to be better at high-end negotiation, and warning us of the consequences if we fall behind.
A brief look at some relevant developments in AI
We took a comprehensive look at some of the challenges and effects of artificial intelligence on our human conflicts in my book Hamlet’s Mirror: Conflict and Artificial Intelligence, and the field of high-end negotiation, in both the commercial and diplomatic arenas came under the spotlight. I would suggest that one of the imperceptible but most crucial developments to keep an eye on is what lies at the very heart of elite negotiation: the power to persuade. It is here where AI is increasing our power to strategize, to have access to information, to see links between seemingly unrelated dynamics involved in our negotiation, and ultimately then, to increase meaningfully our ability to persuade.
Complex processes, burdensome and time-consuming projects, and data-driven insights that have not just been out of reach, but also out of contemplation in the first place, are steadily becoming available to us, moving from science fiction to nice-to-have to the new normal at speed. Walmart, for instance, using the Pactum platform, has automated large sections of its supplier contract negotiations, removing the need for human intervention in many sections of the process. Thousands of suppliers are negotiated with nearly simultaneously, causing significant cost savings across a broad spectrum of parameters. Walmart claims a savings on average of 3% in studies in the US, Canada, South Africa and Chile.
Luminance’s Autopilot platform showed that the important negotiating aspect of NDA’s can be done very effectively by way of automated processes, AI can be used in this way, to deal with vast volumes of contracts and related material to assess risks, compliance issues and to optimize a variety of corporate and other benefits that would otherwise have not been feasible. AI tools like ChatGPT can be used in a range of creative ways, and I have already started using it to test run ideas against simulations of counterpart negotiating styles or mandate scenarios, and it is surprisingly helpful in designing or flighting creative solutions and alternatives. MIT Sloan’s professor Jared Curhan is doing exciting work in this field that is worth monitoring.
Some implications for elite negotiations
Corporate and diplomatic elite negotiations have changed forever, and far more than just a new angle on a particular technique or an old skill coming back in vogue again. Other sciences and disciplines have brought about some of these seismic changes, and AI is certainly on the cutting edge of those changes. This is much more than just a quantitative sea-change, it affects the very abilities and outcomes that we previously worked with.
My own consulting work, whether in actual negotiations or in coaching mandates, has already changed to:
(i) Incorporate these new skills and horizons in my own negotiating work;
(ii) Access and implement the new levels of data, efficiency and options that have become available, and make that available to the client;
(iii) Continuously advise clients where these new developments can improve their own operational requirements, risk management and efficiency goals, and where necessary design and implement internal systems, processes and people to integrate these options and potential into the fabric of the client’s organization
These developments, points (ii) and (iii) especially, were simply never regarded as necessary or possible. It is a jarring observation as to exactly how meaningfully and constructively these developments have not just changed elite negotiation, but everything linked to it.
Conclusion
In my book Hamlet’s Mirror we structured a framework that optimally benefits corporations or individuals in navigating the conflicts and challenges of the impacts of AI on our world as we knew it. As anticipated, these developments have reached into that most important command centre of the modern business world: the elite negotiation abilities of that business. We are all negotiators in business, at some level or another, we are all selling something and trying to optimize our chances and results.
With the right level of expert knowledge and an open, ongoing approach to collaboration with the benefits of artificial intelligence (while being aware of, and wisely managing the possible harm and negative outcomes thereof), the modern business improves its edge in productivity, competitiveness, risk management and, maybe most importantly, its corporate leadership skills. In my view the question is really not whether to make use of these benefits, or what will happen if we linger too long, or refuse to integrate these possibilities into our very corporate essence, but simply to discuss the specifics of such integration.
One of the benefits of these newly available strategies and skills is that they are so much more manageable and measurable, in individuals or teams, and senior management need no longer be content with promises and assurances of increased negotiation skills. These are exciting times for the corporate world, and these new possibilities unlock the very skills and solutions that we will sorely need to not just survive, but thrive, in this brave new world. Once we fall behind in these new normal leadership and senior management skills it will be difficult to regain parity or supremacy in our specific fields. Exciting, inspirational times – for those who understand the importance and urgency of these times.
Summary of main sources, references and suggested reading
1. Hamlet’s Mirror: conflict and artificial intelligence, by Andre Vlok, Paradigm Media (2023).
2. Relevant articles for your general negotiation and conflict work, and their source material, can be found at www.conflict-conversations.co.za
(Andre Vlok can be contacted at andre@conflict1.co.za for any further information.)
(c) Andre Vlok
April 2025